Portugal currently leads their group with 10 points, followed by Hungary with 8 points and Ireland with 7. A win in this match would secure Portugal’s direct qualification for the World Cup finals. However, a loss would require the outcome of another match. In their first encounter, Portugal thrashed Armenia 5-0.
Potential scenarios for Portugal not winning are as follows:
(1) If Portugal draws, but Ireland and Hungary also draw, Portugal will still qualify directly based on their points advantage.
(2) If Portugal draws, but Ireland beats Hungary, Portugal will qualify directly.
(3) If Portugal draws, but Hungary beats Ireland, and Hungary’s goal difference is not greater than Portugal’s, Portugal will qualify directly.
(4) If Portugal draws, but Hungary beats Ireland, and Hungary’s goal difference is greater than Portugal’s, Portugal will be relegated to the playoffs.
(5) If Portugal loses, but Ireland and Hungary draw, Portugal will qualify directly. (6) If Portugal loses and Ireland beats Hungary, but their goal difference is not greater than Portugal’s, Portugal qualifies directly for the World Cup.
(7) If Portugal loses and Ireland beats Hungary, and their goal difference is greater than Portugal’s, Portugal will be relegated to the playoffs.
(8) If Portugal loses and Hungary beats Ireland, Portugal will be relegated to the playoffs.
On 16 November, Portugal will host Armenia in the final group stage match of the 2026 UEFA Euro qualifiers. A victory for Portugal would guarantee them direct qualification for the World Cup finals, while a loss would leave them to rely on the result of the Ireland vs. Hungary match, potentially relegating them to the playoffs.
